Is Erbil the Capital of Barzani’s Kurdish State, or an Iraqi City?

Faraedun Rasol – Activist 

Although, constitutionally and legally, Erbil is an Iraqi city and the capital of the Kurdistan Region, and the Kurdistan Region itself is part of federal Iraq, Erbil was supposed to become the capital of the state that Barzani intended to establish. Yet, only after the withdrawal of the United States from Iraq has Barzani once again described Erbil as an Iraqi city, appearing to retreat from the aspiration of making it the capital of a Kurdish state.

Nine years after holding the independence referendum, Masoud Barzani told Arab media that the Kurdistan Region considers itself part of Iraq and that the Region and Erbil cannot be treated as though they are outside Iraq. He also described Erbil as an Iraqi city.

Barzani is concerned about the reduction of American support and influence in Iraq. There are also fears surrounding missile and drone threats against the Kurdistan Region, political pressure and disputes with Baghdad, and the possibility of a security vacuum following the withdrawal of US forces. Therefore, he seeks to accommodate the Iraqi government and, by describing Erbil as an Iraqi city, reduce pressure on the future position of his party and family.

We also saw Masrour Barzani warn at the end of September 2026 that, following the withdrawal of US and coalition forces, the Kurdistan Region must be prepared for any potential threat. This indicates that they perceive their position to be at risk and seek to connect public sentiment with the national cause, encouraging people to defend the territory of Kurdistan.

If we compare Masoud Barzani’s latest remarks with his position in 2017, we can make the political assessment that they represent a retreat from his previous stance. In 2017, Barzani explicitly stated that the referendum was about independence and that its result should become the basis for negotiations to fulfil the aspiration for independence.

However, following the referendum, that project did not reach the stage of establishing an independent state because of Baghdad’s rejection and opposition from the United States, Europe, Turkey and Iran. Baghdad also made it clear that it would not negotiate on the basis of the referendum’s result. Therefore, nine years later, Barzani is describing what was intended to become the capital of a Kurdish state as an Iraqi city.

When Barzani says, “Erbil is the capital of the Kurdistan Region, but like Baghdad, Basra and Kirkuk, it is an Iraqi city,” we can see a clear change compared with his statements in 2017. At that time, the referendum was presented as a path towards independence; today, however, the emphasis is that the Kurdistan Region remains within Iraq and that Erbil is an Iraqi city.

Why Are They Afraid of Baghdad?

There is no doubt that, following the referendum, Baghdad demonstrated its capacity to exert both political and military pressure. With US support, Baghdad seeks to place limits on the Kurdistan Regional Government, particularly economically and militarily.

Therefore, through his current statements, Barzani appears to be sending a message to Baghdad: let us negotiate and resolve our disputes in accordance with the Constitution. This, in turn, reflects the current weakness of Barzani and the Kurdistan Regional Government.

It is clear that Barzani has retreated from his strategy of independence. His current political rhetoric and positions indicate a strategic shift—from the direct objective of statehood towards an emphasis on federalism and the rights of the Kurdistan Region within Iraq.